Metapopulation Modeling of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Spread Under Spatially Heterogeneous Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Uptake
Keywords:
Metapopulation Dynamics, Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis, Spatial Epidemiology, Human Mobility, Infectious Disease ModelingAbstract
The human immunodeficiency virus remains a persistent global public health challenge despite significant advancements in biomedical prevention strategies. Among these interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis has demonstrated remarkable efficacy in preventing viral acquisition among high-risk populations. However, the population-level impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis is frequently undermined by spatial heterogeneities in healthcare access, medication adherence, and underlying epidemic dynamics. Traditional epidemiological models often rely on the assumption of homogeneous population mixing, which fails to capture the complex spatial distribution of communities and the critical role of human mobility in disease transmission. This paper presents a comprehensive metapopulation modeling framework designed to evaluate the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus under varying conditions of spatially heterogeneous pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake. By dividing the broader population into distinct interacting geographical patches such as urban cores, suburban rings, and rural peripheries, the proposed model incorporates explicit mobility matrices to simulate daily commuting and long-term migration patterns. Through extensive scenario-based simulations, this research demonstrates that uniform scale-up of preventive medication is less efficient than spatially targeted interventions that prioritize localized transmission hotspots. The findings reveal that high human mobility can significantly dilute the protective benefits of localized prophylactic interventions, transforming neighboring low-uptake regions into epidemiological reservoirs. The insights derived from this study underscore the necessity for geographically tailored public health strategies and provide a robust analytical foundation for optimizing resource allocation in the ongoing effort to eliminate the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Bryce Dory, Bryan Dorothy, Amedeo Cherie, Yeonwoo Gil
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